Saturday, February 8, 2014
For over a year now I’ve been expecting 2014 to be the year when the unintended consequences of five years of QE come home to roost.
By the end of the year we are going to have a massive inflationary spike in commodity prices that will collapse the global economy. It’s all going to start with a final manic melt up phase in the stock market over the next 3-4 months. Make no mistake, this bull market will not be over until the NASDAQ tests it’s all time high above 5000.
Over the next 3-4 months we are going to see the public pile into the stock market exactly like they did with tech stocks in 2000, and real estate in 2005.
Completing the final bubble phase in the stock market is the first component necessary for the Great Inflation. During this period commodities are going to start to rise in a stealth rally that everyone will ignore because they will be focused on the stock market. The CRB has already broken out of its three-year downtrend.
At some point later this year, probably in May or early June the stock market parabola will collapse. This is the second component necessary to initiate the Great Inflation. When the crash begins the inflation stored in stocks will flow into the commodity markets. This process will be exacerbated as Yellen reverses the taper and doubles down on QE to try and reflate the stock market bubble. This will be like throwing gasoline on a fire, and will drive commodity prices through the roof into the end of the year and probably the spring of 2015.
The Fed is going to make the exact same mistake they did during the last decade. Their easy monetary policy has produced a bubble in stocks just like it produced a bubble in real estate in 2005. When the bubble implodes the Fed will try to reflate. They won’t succeed in reflating the broken stock market parabola, but it will trigger an explosion in commodity prices. The rapid spike in commodity prices will collapse the global economy just like it did in 2008.
Because the artificial and manipulated bear market of the last year has severely damaged the supply side of the market, I expect the precious metals will be the largest beneficiary during the Great Inflation of 2014.
By this time next year all of the Chinese/Russians/Indians, etc. who have been scooping up gold over the last year are going to look like geniuses.